THE woman running NHS services in Gwent has admitted to being “anxious” about full hospitals in the run up to the winter peak.

Nicola Prygodzicz, Aneurin Bevan University Health Board chief executive, said the number of patients in its beds, who could be returned home or to a care home, needed to reduce before demand spikes in January.

She told the board’s November 26 meeting: “We’re six weeks away from the peak. We need those discharge numbers reduced by at least 50... We’re already full today.”

Ms Prygodzicz said her “anxiety” is around how quickly the board can reduce numbers “lying in our beds today so there is capacity for people who come in”.

The NHS is expected to work iwith Gwent’s five local authorities responsible for social care through a regional partnership board that has had to draw up a plan for reducing those staying in hospital longer than necessary, under a 50-day Welsh Government challenge.

Flu and pneumonia modelling scenarios predict peak national daily admissions of 63-132 for this winter. Covid-19 is also expected to lead to increased strain.

The Aneurin Bevan board has 1,529 beds,, and predicts bed occupancy to peak in the second week of January at 1,579, with a range of 1,505 to 1,613 – potentially leaving it 50 beds short.

It also has to account for beds being closed due to infection controls as well as emergency surgical demands and surgery to meet waiting time targets.

Hannah Evans, ABHB planning director, said the “answer is not to put in an additional 130 beds.”

Instead plans include using clinics rather than patients arriving at the Grange University Hospital A&E, and boosting vaccination rates for at risk groups.

Better use of beds in smaller hospitals will free up demand at the Grange, while plans are also being put in place to better deal with patients arriving there.

There is also a streamlined decision-making process with an integrated discharge board and regular meetings with council decision makers.

The health board will be tracking data including public and staff vaccination rates, how long patients are staying in hospital and occupancy rates, ‘bed blocking’, demand on the emergency department and staff absence.

It’s thought a 25 per cent reduction in ‘bed blocking’ could free up 58 beds.

There is a contingency plan to expand to 84 ICU beds at the Grange in the event of a “full surge”.

But ABHB special advisor and former Powys council social services chief Phil Robson said: “I’m not impressed with some of the partnership stuff, it seems a bit woolly. There’s lots of detail about what the health board are going to do, but not so much about what partners will do.”

ABHB chief operating officer Leanne Watkins replied: “So what? We’re responsible for providing health care. We are trying to get our own house in order in the first instance.”

Plans have been tested at hospitals during November.

The plan has already been allocated £2m in health board funding and £500,000 of unspent funds from the regional partnership board will be added.