Following the far-reaching changes to Agricultural Property Relief (APR) in last October's Budget, many Welsh farmers braced for further blows in the Chancellor's Spring Statement last week. Ultimately, the statement largely avoided direct agricultural policy shifts; rather reaffirming fiscal constraints and austerity measures - extending cuts to welfare, foreign aid and the civil service.

Much of the Chancellor’s decisions were however soon overshadowed, with Donald Trump's announcement of import tariffs of 25 per cent on cars and car parts coming into the US.

Talks of UK tariff retaliation and transatlantic trade deals have subsequently followed, and it remains imperative Welsh agricultural interests are not sold down the river in pursuit of any short-term trade concessions.

March provided a timely reminder of the danger of ill-thought-out trade deals. The UK Government reported a surge of 40% in imported sheep meat in 2024 compared with the 12-months prior, with Australian and New Zealand imports now accounting for 86% of the entire UK sheep meat imports - a growing threat to domestic producers, as previously warned by the Farmers’ Union of Wales.

The risks to Welsh agriculture by becoming collateral damage in any trade deal with the US could be even more significant; creating an uneven playing field, which could force Welsh farmers to compete with cheaper, sub-standard imports produced in manners that would be illegal in the UK.

In particular, we could see the high animal health and food safety standards maintained by Welsh farmers undermined by the threat of lower standard imports from the US. Amongst these imports are chlorinated-chicken and hormone-treated beef - both illegal to produce in the UK.

Whilst last week we saw some voices within the political sphere advocate the inclusion of agricultural products in a US-UK trade deal - including chlorine-treated chicken - there’s no doubt any influx of cheaper US agricultural products could drastically drive down domestic market prices; severely impacting the economic viability of Welsh family farms.

Crucially, domestic consumer confidence could be shaken, too. Previous analysis shows there’s little public support for such imports - with a 2020 poll revealing that 80% of the British public opposed the importation of chlorine-treated chicken, with similar disapproval for hormone-treated beef.

Essentially, a US trade deal that fails to prioritise the protection of Welsh agriculture risks not only economic devastation but also a fundamental shift in the character and sustainability of our rural landscape and food production; jeopardising the future of generations of Welsh farmers. As discussions therefore continue around trade and tariffs, it’s vital the interests of Welsh farmers are safeguarded in any future agreements.